155 College Street, Room 208
  • September 26, 2016 (all day)
  • September 26, 2016 (all day)
  • October 5, 2016 from 1:00am to 2:30am

The Office of Global Public Health, Education & Training presents


State Space Models of the HIV Care Cascade

A lecture by

Dr. Joseph Hogan, Professor, Biostatistics, Brown University


Wednesday, October 5

1 – 2:30 pm

155 College Street, Room 208


The HIV care cascade is a conceptual model used to describe the essential steps in the continuum of HIV care.  The cascade framework has been widely applied to define population-level metrics and milestones for monitoring and assessing strategies designed to identify new HIV cases, link individuals to appropriate care, initiate antiviral treatment, and ultimately suppress viral load.   Because the care cascade involves progressing through multiple stages over time, and may involve dropout and re-entry into care, comprehensive modeling of the entire cascade is challenging.  Many approaches rely on simulations of assumed dynamical systems, frequently using data from disparate sources as inputs.  The growing availability of large-scale longitudinal cohorts of individuals in HIV care affords an opportunity to develop and fit coherent statistical models using single sources of data.   In this talk, we describe a state-space modeling approach that models probability of transition between states over time.  With sufficiently large cohorts, the model can be used to investigate individual-level predictors of state transitions, to relax common assumptions such as time stationarity, and to accommodate disengagement from care, side-door entry, and mortality.   We demonstrate the  model using multiple years of follow-up data on over 50,000 HIV-positive individuals receiving care from the PEPFAR-funded Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH), an HIV care and treatment program in western Kenya. This is joint work with Hana Lee (Brown U), Paula Braitstein (U Toronto), and Becky Genberg (Brown U).


Joseph Hogan is a Professor of Biostatistics in the School of Public Health.  He is interested in the development and application of statistical methods for missing data, causal inference, and sensitivity analysis, with focus on applications in HIV epidemiology.  For the last 9 years, he has collaborated closely with the AMPATH Consortium, an HIV care, research and training program headquartered in Eldoret, Kenya; he co-directs the Biostatistics Program at AMPATH.  His current research focuses on analytic methods for using electronic health records data for clinical decision making in limited resource settings.  Parallel to his research activities, he has led a significant capacity-building effort related to biostatistics and data science at Moi University in Kenya, and is the PI of the NIH-funded Moi-Brown Partnership for HIV Biostatistics Training (NAMBARI).


A light lunch will be provided. Please RSVP to Alissa Warner at ghoffice.dlsph@utoronto.ca by Friday, September 30.